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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.