Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
